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Adaptive Planning
Last Updated: 2023-06-23
Machine Learning Predictive Forecaster

Machine Learning Predictive Forecaster

With the 2024R2 Release, we introduce Predictive Forecaster, powered by machine learning (ML). Predictive Forecaster leverages your historical data to populate specified forecast versions with ML predicted data.
We enable you to run time series forecasts with regressor data in addition to your historical data within the Workday Adaptive Planning platform. We provide the choice to select the most suitable ML algorithms based on patterns in your data. We also enable you to define the targeted forecast version, time ranges, accounts, and custom dimensions by sheet.
We also provide Confidence Metrics, which enables you to view a dashboard with charts. The charts offer insights into the accuracy and probability range of your forecasts.
We also provide the ability to schedule rolling forecasts, which reference the newest actuals data as you load them. We can then populate new forecasted data into more periods when the forecast runs according to the schedule.
Some of this functionality is only available in Preview at this time.
What the video:
 6m 52s

Business Benefits

Improve both efficiency and accuracy with Predictive Forecaster. Predictive Forecaster seeds plan versions with ML-generated data, which serves as a reliable starting point for budget managers. Predictive Forecaster uses a science- and math-based approach to forecasting, which can replace or enhance the time-consuming manual process.

Changes

We provide a new
Predictive Forecaster
 permission in the
Permission Sets
 of the
Administration
area. To access Predictive Forecaster, you must add the new permission to your permission sets.
From the new
Predictive Forecaster
 page in
Modeling
, we enable you to create and run forecasts. You can run the forecast or save it and run it later. You can also rerun the same forecast.
In the
Create Forecast
 form, we provide these sections to help you define the forecast:
  • Forecast
    : Specify where to populate the forecasted data. You can select a specific sheet, any unlocked plan version, and the start and end periods.
  • Filters
    : Focus your forecast on specific accounts, levels, and custom dimensions.
  • Reference Data
    : Define the range of historical data that you want the algorithm to study. You can set the start and end periods of an actuals version. We also enable you to add plan versions as additional reference data.
  • Algorithm
    : Select from 8 algorithms. We also enable you to define seasonality and leverage regressor data with lever sheets.
We enable to choose from these algorithms:
  • Prophet
  • N-Beats
  • Holt-Winters
  • Kalman Filter
  • Orbit-DLT
  • LightGBM
  • Croston
  • AutoFit
AutoFit is a machine learning algorithm developed by Workday that automatically picks from the available algorithms based on your specific historical data and trends.
After you save or run forecasts, we enable you to review and sort the list of forecasts. From the list, you can:
  • Access the
    More Actions
     menu.
  • Check the most recent status of each.
  • Link to the sheet that contains the forecasted data.
We display these statuses:
  • Blank: You have saved the forecast definition, but you haven't initiated the 1st run.
  • In Queue
    : You ran the forecast, but it hasn’t started yet.
  • In Progress
    : The forecast is running. We display the percent of completeness.
  • Failed
    : The forecast failed. You can review the errors in the Status section of the Forecast History page and troubleshoot.
  • Success
    : The forecasted data has populated the plan version.
From the toolbar, we enable you to:
  • Delete selected forecasts.
  • Start typing in the
    Search
    field to locate the forecast by name or sheet.
We also enable you to hover over a forecast name and click the 3 dots that display to open the
More Actions
 menu. From the
More Actions
 menu, we provide these options:
  • View Details
    : Review the specifications of the forecast.
  • View History
    : Open the
    Forecast History
    page where we display the status of each run. We also display any error messages of failed runs to help you troubleshoot.
  • Run
    : Begin the process of populating the forecast version with machine learning data.
  • Edit
    : Change the definition of the forecast.
  • Duplicate
    : Start a new forecast with the definition of an existing forecast.
  • Delete
    : Delete the forecast definition — and still retain the populated forecasted data in sheets.
  • Cancelled
    : A forecast that was in progress was cancelled.
From
Forecast History
 page, we enable you to select a historical run and view the parameters and the status details. In the
Parameters
section, we provide these definition details:
  • Filters
  • Reference Data
  • Algorithm
In the
Status
section we provide these details:
  • How long a successful forecast took to run.
  • A progress bar for pending forecasts that are In Progress.
  • A list of errors for failed forecasts to help you troubleshoot and try again.
For eligible customers, we also provide options that enable you to generate confidence metrics. The
Confidence Metrics
 tab in the
Forecast History
 page enables you to view a dashboard with metrics to give you insights into the accuracy and probability range of the forecast. When you create forecasts, we provide these options:
  • Forecast Range
    : Populate forecasted data at the upper and lower limit into 2 additional versions. This option also generates a chart in the
    Confidence Metrics
     that maps the prediction against the upper and lower limits of the prediction.
  • Probability Level
    : Specify how broad or narrow you want the range to be.
  • Accuracy Metric
    : Generate a back-test against existing actuals to get an accuracy metric in the
    Confidence Metrics
     tab.
On the
Confidence Metric
 tab, we enable you to review the resulting charts and filter your perspective.
SHOW PREDICTIVE METRICS ON CUBE SHEETS
When you select a version with data generated by a predictive forecaster on cube sheets, we add a new
Show Predictive Metrics
 toolbar icon that enables you to display on cells with generated data:
  • A purple triangle on the corner of the cell.
  • Hover text with the forecast range and accuracy metrics.
If cells with generated data exist on a row, we display the purple triangle and hover text on all cells in the row. When you don't enable accuracy metrics on the predictive forecaster or no metrics exist, we disable the toolbar icon.
For these sheets on dashboards, we add a new
Show Predictive Metrics
 option on the Sheet Menu that enables you to display the purple triangle and hover text.
SCHEDULING FORECASTS
This functionality is only available for Preview at this time. We plan to deliver this to Production on March 15, 2025.
We now enable you to schedule forecasts. We provide these frequency options:
  • Monthly
    , where you can select the day of the month.
  • Weekly
    , where you can select the weekdays.
  • Daily
    .
  • Time
    , where you can specify the time and time zone of the scheduled runs.
We also enable you to:
  • Add more than 1 forecast to the schedule.
  • Rearrange the order of the forecasts in the schedule using the drag and drop function.
When you have more than 1 forecast in a schedule, we provide a check box,
Continue running all forecasts even if one fails
. Selecting this check box enables us to skip failed forecasts so that we can run the next forecast on the schedule.
To support the creation of schedules, we update the
Predictive Forecast
 page with these elements:
  • New
    Schedules
     tab in the left menu, which enables you to view a list of your current schedules and take further actions.
  • New options when you click the
    Add New
     button, which enables you to select
    Forecast
     or
    Schedule
    .
  • New option when you hover over forecasts and click the 3 dots, which enables you to select
    Schedule
     to create a schedule for the forecast.
In the new
Schedule
 tab we provide a list of schedules where we display the status, the next scheduled run, the frequency, and the creator of the schedule.
We enable you to hover over a schedule to click the 3 dots, which opens the
More Actions
 menu for schedules. In this menu, we provide these options:
  • Run
    : Runs the scheduled forecasts ahead of time.
  • Edit
    : Opens the Edit Schedule dialog.
  • Pause
    : Stops the next runs until you resume them.
  • Delete
    : Removes the schedule.
  • Resume
    : Reactivates a paused schedule.
LINKED ACCOUNT SUPPORT
This functionality is only available for Preview at this time. We plan to deliver this to Production at a later date.
We now support running forecasts on linked accounts. We provide a new
Override link for specific version check box
in the
Link Filters
 section of the account settings. We enable you create a data entry override, which makes the account available for Predictive Forecaster for the versions you specify.
ROLLING
FORECASTS
This functionality is only available for Preview at this time. We plan to deliver this to Production on March 15, 2025.
We add rolling forecasts as a new capability to Predictive Forecaster. With rolling forecasts, we enable you to sync the reference periods and forecast periods to the
Completed Value Through
 period of your actuals. We enable you to combine this functionality with the scheduling feature to run Predictive Forecaster on a rolling basis as your actuals data gets updated. Referencing your most up-to-date actuals increases the relevancy of the forecasted data.
With rolling forecast enabled, we shift important forecast periods automatically to align with loaded actuals data. This automatically updates the forecast definition so that you can run it again without editing the definition. When you coordinate the scheduling capability with the rolling forecast capability, the forecast automatically runs at intervals, while referencing new actuals data and generating new forecasted data.
We shift these dates forward in the forecast definition:
  • Actuals End Period
    : To ensure that the next run references the newest data that you loaded, we automatically align this period to the
    Completed Value Through
     period of the Actuals Version. When there’s no
    Completed Value Through
     period, we align to 1 period before the
    Start of Plan
     of the Forecast Version.
  • Forecast Start Period
    : To ensure that we populate new data based on the loaded actuals, we automatically set the
    Forecast Start Period
     with whichever comes later: 1 period after the
    Completed Value Through
     of the Actuals Version or the
    Start of Plan
     of the Forecast Version.
  • Forecast End Period
    (optional): We provide you the option to also shift this period to ensure that we populate new data into new periods as you load actuals. The
    Forecast End Period
     shifts the same amount of periods forward as the
    Forecast Start Period
    .
We provide 2 new options when you click the new
Rolling Forecast
 check box in the forecast definition:
  • Shift forecast start period and end period.
  • Shift only forecast start period.
We provide warnings on the
Schedules
page to indicate when a scheduled forecast will fail due to conflicting start and end periods.

What Do I Need to Do?

To give users access to the Predictive Forecaster, add the
Predictive Forecaster
 permission to the permission sets.

Change Log

Update
  • We update the
    Description
    and
    Changes
    fields to document the delivery of the new
    Rolling Forecast
     check box option.
  • We update the production release date for Linked Account Support to a later date.
Preview Release: 2024-12-13
Update
We now plan to deliver the Linked Account Support portion of this feature to Production at a later date.
Update published 2024-11-29.
Corrections
We incorrectly reported that you can select
Schedule
from the
More Actions
 menu when you hover over forecasts in the list. This option is not available from the
More Actions
 menu and we have removed this content from the release note.
We also:
  • Correct the name of a field, from
    Probability Range
     to
    Forecast Range
    .
  • Add the
    Cancel
    option to
    More Actions
     menu, which enables you to stop a forecast from completing.
  • Add the
    Cancelled
    status for forecasts that you stopped from completing.
Corrections published: 2024-11-1
Scheduling and Linked Accounts
We update the Changes section with new capabilities that are available for Preview. These changes include:
  • Support for linked accounts.
  • Scheduling forecasts.
Preview Release: 2024-10-11.
Show Predictive Metrics on Cube Sheets
We update the Changes field to document the new
Show Predictive Metrics
 toolbar icon on cube sheets and
Show Predictive Metrics
 Sheet Menu option on cube sheets on dashboards.
Preview Release: 2024-10-11. Production Release: 2024-11-8.